The time has come, finally. The 2020 Oscars are here, tonight, and it is time to make my annual predictions. Readers who have followed me for these many years know that I am not particularly good at these predictions; if I get half right, I am usually content. There are always surprises, and I have not been very adroit at spotting them, although I have certainly had my moments.
This year’s nominees are a varied lot, with more independent-style personal dramas than ever before, which is, of course, due to Covid and the lack of big-budget theatrical releases. It has been a truly strange year (and a bit more), but I am not in a good position to judge it because I’ve only seen about thirty of the eligible films — less than 10 % — and few of the multi-nominated films. For the first time in I don’t recall I have not made the effort to find things like Mank or Judas and the Black Messiah or The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari. I will, eventually, but for this year I have not made a point of searching for them. Sometime in the 1990s my mother-in-law filled out a ballot and scoring 19 correct while seeing only a few of the nominated films. That’s what I am going to try to do today. Maybe I can be more objective by not seeing them.
So here goes, category by category, in no particular order:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm . . .; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The Father; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari.
Normally Glenn Close would be a shoo-in, but I thought that when she was up for The Wife (and lost to Olivia Colman). But Hillbilly Elegy has been so critically panned that I cannot see her winning for it. Lots of pretty young actresses have unexpectedly won in this category, which bodes well for Amanda Seyfried or Maria Bakalova. Since Colman recently won, she won’t win this year. And that leaves the audience favorite from Minari, who has become a critical darling.
Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari. In a close race I think that the grandmother figure is going to carry the day and set the tone for the evening.
Best International Feature
Nominees: Another Round; Better Days; Collective; The Man Who Sold His Skin; Quo Vadis, Aida?
I haven’t seen any of them, although I’ve heard a bit about Collective, which is also up for Best Documentary. Any movie that is nominated in another category is the favorite, and Another Round scored a surprise Best Director nomination (beating out Regina King). Therefore, it is automatically the favorite in this category, and that’s enough for me, despite its weird premise.
Winner: Another Round.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward; Over the Moon; A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Armageddon; Soul; Wolfwalkers.
I haven’t seen any of them, although I would love to see the Shaun the Sheep movie and Wolfwalkers. As usual, Pixar is the studio to beat, and they have two films of note in this category, although neither of which fires my imagination.
Winner: Soul.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time.
As stated above, any film with a nomination in another category becomes the automatic favorite, giving Collective the edge. However, in the four documentary and short film categories, anything can happen and I often make my predictions based on title alone (I never said I had a valid system for my predictions). Therefore . . .
Winner: My Octopus Teacher. An irresistible title.
Best Documentary Short
Nominees: Colette; A Concerto is a Conversation; Do Not Split; Hunger Ward; A Love Song for Latasha.
Another category about which I know absolutely nothing. And none of the titles speaks “winner” to me.
Winner: A Concerto is a Conversation. Because it’s about music, the universal language.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah; Minari; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago 7.
All of these nominees are also Best Picture nominees, so they all have a fighting chance. With no Nomadland here the category seems wide open. I’ll say Minari is the dark horse, again, but the favorite has to be Aaron Sorkin’s political drama, something that he handles so well.
Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7. Prizes at the Oscar almost always get spread around, and this category gives Aaron Sorkin a chance to get his critically acclaimed time capsule political drama some Oscar love.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm . . .; The Father; Nomadland; One Night in Miami . . .; The White Tiger.
It’s hard to believe a Borat movie is Oscar worthy; I’ll have to see it to believe it. Nomadland is the obvious favorite, but there is an opportunity for Regina King’s movie to steal this away. I think it’s a toss-up.
Winner: One Night in Miami . . . . Again, it’s the principle of spreading the riches that is driving this prediction. And the fact that Nomadland‘s screenplay is intellectual rather than emotionally satisfying.’
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods; Mank; Minari; News of the World; Soul.
Ordinarily this is a strong category for me. However, I’ve only heard one of these scores, which was News of the World. It won’t win. This should be a relatively easy one to guess.
Winner: Soul. It’s a movie about music.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Husavik (My Hometown),” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah; “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead; “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami . . .; “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Yet another category where I am flying blind. I’m going with the song cowritten and sung by the actual cast member in the movie, Leslie Odom, Jr., who stars as Sam Cooke (and is up for an Oscar for his performance).
Winner: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami . . . . Its title also evokes the current cultural attitude.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami . . . ; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal; LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah.
This is the hardest category of the acting bunch for me to predict, complicated by the ridiculous balloting of two starring actors from one movie in the Supporting category. I’m sorry, but you can’t have everybody support. Someone has to star. Therefore, I am going to bet they cancel each other out. I cannot be the only person bothered by this.
Winner: Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami . . .. I’m betting that Regina King’s movie is recognized here because viewers think it should have received more Oscar attention — and because I’ve heard Odom is so good as Sam Cooke.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; News of the World; Nomadland; The Trial of the Chicago 7.
This might be the most obvious winner of the evening. Only one stands out because it is stately, old fashioned black-and-white in an age of jiggly handheld color vistas.
Winner: Mank. I’ll eat a vegetable if Mank doesn’t win here — and I hate vegetables.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; Mulan; Pinocchio.
Nice variety here. Normally Emma‘s period clothing would be the spectacle to beat, but the other period pieces are formidable as well. Being black-and-white probably hurts Mank in this category, and Mulan seems more like quantity over quality. I think it’s between Emma and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I thought Emma was a but underwhelming, so . . .
Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma; Hillbilly Elegy; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; Pinocchio.
Nice variety here. Same arguments as in Costume Design (though with Hillbilly Elegy replacing Mulan), and, I think, the same result.
Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound; Mank; News of the World; Soul; Sound of Metal.
This would be where I would have expected to see blockbuster action films like Tenet or WW84. But not this year. The one war film seems perfectly at home here, while music drives Soul and Sound of Metal. But only one film is actually about hearing, and if that doesn’t win in the Sound category, then I’ll eat yet another vegetable.
Winner: Sound of Metal.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman.
My choice here would be the provocative and brave Carey Mulligan performance, but I think her movie is too strong for traditional Oscar voters. Frances McDormand has already won this category twice; I just cannot fathom voters giving her a third trophy, putting her in the same company as Katharine Hepburn and Meryl Streep. I like Frances, but I don’t consider her an all-time great. That leaves Viola Davis, who recently won in the Supporting category, and two relative unknowns. It’s a wild category.
Winner: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday. One of those relative unknowns (unknown to me, at least) is portraying a jazz legend, performing Billie Holiday’s songs herself, and making movie history as the second actress nominated for portraying the jazz singer (the first was Diana Ross in 1972). Actresses who sing as well often win this award; last year it was Renée Zellweger as Judy Garland.
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Tenet.
I’ve actually seen three of these, perhaps the most of any category. I’m not sure it helps because I’m not sure if any of the three can carry this category. Tenet gets one of its only two nominations here, and is probably the favorite (though I solidly disliked this overproduced hokum). Mank represents old-time Hollywood glamour, while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom represents black jazz culture (I think).
Winner: Mank. It seems to me that Production Design and Cinematography are tightly intertwined, and Hollywood loves to honor its own. If Mank isn’t the choice, then look to Tenet or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. But I think Mank is the winner in a close race.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; The Only and Only Ivan; Tenet.
Although I didn’t like Tenet, Christopher Nolan is a critical darling and it is nearly unthinkable that any film other than his would win this category, especially considering all the stunt driving and unusual techniques he employed — not to mention the 747.
Winner: Tenet.
Best Editing
Nominees: The Father; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago 7.
All are Best Picture nominees as well, which is standard for this category. Often, Editing reflects the Best Picture winner — but probably not this year. I place a great deal of faith in the “spread the wealth” hypothesis most years, especially this one, so I am going to discount Nomadland and Sound of Metal here, because they are going to win elsewhere. Complexity and balance among story threads is often recognized, so that indicates one movie above the others.
Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7. I wish Promising Young Woman would win this, but I’m just not convinced it can.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Anthony Hopkins, The Father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari.
What a diverse panel of actors! If Gary Oldman had not previously won (for Darkest Hour a few years ago) he might be the favorite. Anthony Hopkins is triumphant in his second straight Oscar contest, while the other three men are all newcomers to Oscar glory. Naturally, I haven’t seen any of their performances. But I’ve seen Chadwick Boseman before; he should have been nominated for 42, and probably other films as well. His untimely death last year shocked the world, including me. Look for a fitting tribute tonight.
Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees: Burrow; Genius Loci; If Anything Happens I Love You; Opera; Yes-People.
No idea. This time I’ll go with the longest title.
Winner: If Anything Happens I Love You.
Best Live-Action Short FIlm
Nominees: Feeling Through; The Letter Room; The Present; Two Distant Strangers; White Eye.
No idea. This time I’ll go with the longest title.
Winner: Two Distant Strangers.
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman; David Fincher, Mank; Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland.
Two women were nominated as directors for the first time, and Regina King was widely predicted to be the third this year for her film One Night in Miami . . . . It is probable that one of them will win, and it won’t be Emerald Fennell, who made the best movie of the year (that I saw).
Winner: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland. If I’m right about Minari, below, then Lee Isaac Chung is the dark horse, but I expect picture and director to be different movies. Despite my misgivings about Nomadland‘s entertainment value, it is certainly a thoughtful exploration about sides of our country we rarely witness, and a brave project to even attempt in these days of cinematic superhero supremacy.
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; Minari; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Nomadland seems like the one to beat. It’s an intellectually stimulating movie with almost no traditional entertainment value, which may be perfect for this strange year. If Mank or The Trial of the Chicago 7 had received theatrical runs I think they would be contenders, but there is an undeniable bias against product that is exclusively streamed, deserved or not. Minari is a dark horse; people seem to really like it, and if anything can surprise in this category, Minari is it. I thought Promising Young Woman is by far the best film I saw from 2020, but it isn’t the type of film that wins the Best Picture Oscar. I have no feelings at all about the other two nominees.
Winner: Minari. I’m going out on a limb with this one, I know, but recent surprises in this category have been frequent, and the vibe I’m getting about Minari is that viewers actually like it, where I don’t feel that for Nomadland. (It may not help that I’ve actually seen, and not really liked, Nomadland). The despicable anti-Asian acts that have occurred around the country may work in this film’s favor as well, if voters wish to show support for the Asian community in this manner.
That’s it. Be sure to watch tonight to see, among other things, how well I did. And be sure to make some predictions of your own; that’s half the fun of the show. There are, I think, a lot of great movies to celebrate this year, and I can’t wait to celebrate them. 25 April 2021 (1:15 p.m. EST).