The main reason I began the print version of Filmbobbery in 1999 was to cover the Academy Awards, both before and after. For a couple of years previously I had put together Oscar preview and aftermath newsletters, with in-depth nomination information and (supposedly) educated predictions, then discussed the telecast and its surprises afterward. This grew into four issues per year, with two of them having nothing to do with the Oscars. Still, the Academy Awards remained a prime focus of that publication, and my subsequent website as well.
Still, my interest is not what it once was. As public dissension about the film industry’s self-congratulatory celebration has increased, I too have lost some of my enthusiasm. The pandemic has not helped; my own theatrical moviegoing habit has slipped tremendously. This year, for the first time that I can recall, I did not try to predict the Oscar nominations, something I have done forever. I had only seen twenty-eight or so films on the eligibility list, and I did not feel qualified to even guess at what might be nominated.
Now, however, anybody can try and predict the actual contest, and I am going to do just that. There are 23 categories now (the two sound categories have been spliced into just one), and I reckon I have just as much chance as anybody at picking Hollywood’s finest. Strike that — this is a more international grouping now, with films from Japan, France, Denmark and Spain vying for major prizes, including Best Picture. The world’s finest. And Seth Rogen be damned — the Oscars are still relevant and important.
So here are my picks for the 94th Oscars, taking place Sunday, March 27, 2022.
The actual winners are added below.
Picture:
Nominees: Belfast; CODA; Don’t Look Up; Drive My Car; Dune (Part One); King Richard; Licorice Pizza; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story.
I can realistically see four movies winning: Belfast, CODA, Dune or The Power of the Dog. The first and last are acting showcases of personal stories, while Dune is the bold science fiction spectacle. I have yet to see CODA, which is probably also an acting showcase of a personal story, but that title is the one that I think has all the momentum. With its bold, non-traditional choices in recent years the Academy votership has proven that it is willing to embrace stories that wouldn’t have even have been nominated in previous decades. CODA gives voice, I think, to the hard-of-hearing community, asking for tolerance, understanding and acceptance. I think the Academy voters will provide it.
Projected Winner: CODA.
Actual Winner: CODA.
Director:
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story.
To me this comes down to Kenneth Branagh’s reminiscence about his Irish childhood and Jane Campion’s reimagining of the old west. So few female directors have ever been nominated (Campion is the seventh, I believe) that it is unthinkable she will not win here — unless the backlash against her film is larger than we all suppose. It is worth noting that her film has a dozen nominations, more than any other. This category is hers to lose.
Projected Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.
Actual Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.
Actor in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog; Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick … Boom!; Will Smith, King Richard; Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth.
I’ve only seen one of these, Benedict Cumberbatch’s best Daniel Day-Lewis-type of character presentation, and I was impressed. Nevertheless, I think that this particular award will be a career-capping commemoration for one of the most popular actors of our time, Will Smith. The dark horse is Andrew Garfield, who has seen his popularity soar this past year with roles in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and especially Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Projected Winner: Will Smith, King Richard.
Actual Winner: Will Smith, King Richard.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Ciarán Hinds, Belfast; Troy Kotsur, CODA; Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog; J. K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos; Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog.
Having seen three of these performances I am confident that none of them will win. And I can’t see the role of actor William Frawley ever taking such a prize. That leaves Troy Kotsur, the guy from CODA, about which I know next to nothing. But I think he will win.
Projected Winner: Troy Kotsur, CODA.
Actual Winner: Troy Kotsur, CODA.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos; Kristen Stewart, Spencer.
I’ve seen just one of these lovely lady performances, and I would characterize Kristen Stewart as the dark horse. She’s the only first-time nominee; three others have already won an Actress or Supporting Actress Oscar. I’m picking Jessica Chastain, who has been nominated before but not yet taken home the prize. She’s playing a real-life person who is perhaps largely misunderstood by the public at large. That’s the kind of role that wins awards.
Projected Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Actual Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard.
This is another category which I think will serve as a career capper, this time for Kirsten Dunst. She has been making good, popular films for almost three decades (remember her stunning turn in 1994’s Interview with a Vampire?), and people love her. Often this category also spotlights young, rising stars (Dunst was that twenty years ago), so it’s possible that Jessie Buckley or Ariana DeBose takes the Golden Guy, but not this year.
Projected Winner: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog.
Actual Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story.
Adapted Screenplay:
Nominees: CODA; Drive My Car; Dune (Part One); The Lost Daughter; The Power of the Dog.
The only source I am aware of is Frank Herbert’s humungous book “Dune,” and its adaptation only tells part of its story. The others are mysteries to me, but I am predicting that CODA will win this category too, thereby taking every category for which it is nominated.
Projected Winner: Siân Heder, CODA.
Actual Winner: Siân Heder, CODA.
Original Screenplay:
Nominees: Belfast; Don’t Look Up; King Richard; Licorice Pizza; The Worst Person in the World.
I look for Kenneth Branagh to take home the Original Screenplay award for his heartfelt childhood recreation Belfast. It could go to any of the others, of course, but if Don’t Look Up wins I will vomit.
Projected Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast.
Actual Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast.
Cinematography:
Nominees: Dune (Part One); Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; The Tragedy of Macbeth; West Side Story.
It’s tight between some worthy contenders, but I am picking the most beautiful film I saw from last year, fashioned like an old-style Hollywood movie.
Projected Winner: Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley.
Actual Winner: Greig Fraser, Dune (Part One).
Costume Design:
Nominees: Cruella; Cyrano; Dune (Part One); Nightmare Alley; West Side Story.
I think this will be between the two C titles, new-fashioned flashy Cruella and old-fashioned flowery Cyrano. I usually pick the most traditional of the bunch for this category.
Projected Winner: Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano.
Actual Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella.
Film Editing:
Nominees: Don’t Look Up; Dune (Part One); King Richard; The Power of the Dog; Tick, Tick … Boom!
The variety here is remarkable, from science-fiction to satire, from western to musical. I will rely on a trick I’ve used many times over the years and pick the longest film, which seems contraindicative, but often proves successful.
Projected Winner: Joe Walker, Dune (Part One).
Actual Winner: Joe Walker, Dune (Part One).
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Nominees: Coming 2 America; Cruella; Dune (Part One); The Eyes of Tammy Faye; House of Gucci.
Three approaches can work here: quantity (Dune Part One); flashiness (Cruella; perhaps Coming 2 America) or transformation (The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci). I usually go for transformation, and I expect that turning Jessica Chastain and Andrew Garfield into the Bakkers is going to win the day.
Projected Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Actual Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Original Score:
Nominees: Don’t Look Up; Dune (Part One); Encanto; Parallel Mothers; The Power of the Dog.
There is one Disney movie here and that usually spells success. That’s the one I’m picking.
Projected Winner: Germaine Franco, Encanto.
Actual Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune (Part One).
Original Song:
Nominees: “Be Alive,” King Richard; “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto; “Down to Joy,” Belfast; “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die; “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days.
Rules were stupidly changed prior to this year limiting each film to one song candidate; thus the best song from Encanto isn’t even present because the nitwits at Disney couldn’t tell what their best song was. Nevertheless, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” the showstopping tune which ought to be the easy winner will be performed at the Oscars because, well, because they figure that’s what the viewers want to see. But what about this category? Will Lin-Manuel Miranda win for his other song and become the 17th EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) recipient in American entertainment history? I don’t think so. I’m betting the Beyoncé song from King Richard trumps the field, giving her another boost toward her own EGOT.
Projected Winner: Dixson and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, “Be Alive,” King Richard.
Actual Winner: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die.
Production Design:
Nominees: Dune (Part One); Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; The Tragedy of Macbeth; West Side Story.
Dune (Part One) probably has the edge here, but I have to choose the film with the finest production design that I have seen in a long time.
Projected Winner: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley.
Actual Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (Part One).
Sound:
Nominees: Belfast; Dune (Part One); No Time to Die; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story.
Two categories are now one, which is fine — very often one film won both Sound Mixing and Sound Recording. There are films with big sonic landscapes, and small, personal ones. I’m going with the musical.
Projected Winner: Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story.
Actual Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (Part One).
Visual Effects:
Nominees: Dune (Part One); Free Guy; No Time to Die; Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings; Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Lots of people were miffed that the Spider-Man movie was not recognized in more major categories; here is their chance to vote for it. I still think it will not win.
Projected Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (Part One).
Actual Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (Part One).
Animated Feature Film:
Nominees: Encanto; Flee; Luca; The Mitchells vs. the Machines; Raya and the Last Dragon.
Quite a bit of variety is here, evidenced by the foreign-language documentary Flee, but this is Disney’s category to lose.
Projected Winner: Encanto.
Actual Winner: Encanto.
Animated Short Film:
Nominees: Affairs of the Art; Bestia; Boxballet; Robin Robin; The Windshield Wiper.
If I were choosing by title, as I often have in the past, it would be The Windshield Wiper. But I did a tiny bit of research and learned that one of these animated shorts is filmed in stop-motion animation, the same way that Ray Harryhausen made so many wonderful creature features in the ’50s and ’60s. That’s my preferred animation medium.
Projected Winner: Robin Robin.
Actual Winner: The Windshield Wiper.
Documentary Feature Film:
Nominees: Ascension; Attica; Flee; Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised); Writing with Fire.
Documentaries are so often dark and depressing tales of inhumanity (Attica, anyone?) that it is a treat when a joyful musical doc makes the list of finalists. Plus, it is made by Questlove, who helped out at last year’s Oscarfest with dopey trivia.
Projected Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised).
Actual Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised).
Documentary Short Subject:
Nominees: Audible; Lead Me Home; The Queen of Basketball; Three Songs for Benazir; When We Were Bullies.
The eye-catching title to me is the last one, which promises a different perspective, but my small research efforts uncovered the fact that the subject of The Queen of Basketball is the only woman ever to be drafted by the National Basketball Association (though, of course, she never played in the NBA). That’s enough for me.
Projected Winner: The Queen of Basketball.
Actual Winner: The Queen of Basketball.
Live Action Short Film:
Nominees: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run; The Dress; The Long Goodbye; On My Mind; Please Hold.
I am unfamiliar with all of these shorts, though I do know now that Riz Ahmed, an acting nominee last year for Sound of Metal appears in and helped write and produce The Long Goodbye. Star power often wins these “minor” categories when it is associated, and that’s what I think will happen here.
Projected Winner: The Long Goodbye.
Actual Winner: The Long Goodbye.
International Feature Film:
Nominees: Drive My Car (Japan); Flee (Denmark); The Hand of God (Italy); Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan); The Worst Person in the World (Norway).
I’ve actually seen one of these, the Denmark title, which was pretty good. Normally I would pick anything with an animal in the title, and the Bhutan title certainly piques my interest. But Drive My Car is also a Picture nominee, and it would be senseless to choose anything else.
Projected Winner: Drive My Car.
Actual Winner: Drive My Car.
That’s it. Those are my guesses. My rule of success is the halfway mark, so if I get thirteen or more I will be satisfied. But maybe this is the year I will hit the twenty mark. I never have, so I’m always hoping. So jump in and make your own guesses; it’s fun, and educational. Best of luck to everyone, and enjoy the Oscars! 25 March 2022.
What a show. I scored 15 of 23, so I was pretty happy with the result. If I had gone for Dune (Part One) in the technical categories I could have risen to 19, an all-time high for me. But of course I did not. Still, 15 is pretty strong. I have comments about the telecast itself in another article. 5 April 2022.